Tropical Depression One E
Tropical Depression One-E predicted to make land fall in Matazlan. Thanks to David Morris for keeping Zac out of the eye of the storm!
More news later!
More news later!
posted by Zac at
8:32 AM
30 Comments:
The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/143525.shtml?basin?large#contents
Thank you David Morris!
Looks good. The tracks outer band will be 300 miles or so, away from where Zac is right now. Which corresponds with the miserable 10 day forcast which is for 10 kts winds but with all day/night thunderstorms.
Not exactly beach weather at Manzanillo for the next while.
Kind of sad the whole thing :-( so close yet so far. Just out of curiosity did a flight check:
Depart: 4:45pm Manzanillo, Mexico (ZLO)
Arrive: 6:00pm Los Angeles, CA (LAX)
Nothing but a 3 hour flight for 500dollars.
Very tempting :-)
Logistically how does it work sailing up the coast of Mexico? He checked into customs Marina Chahue, Huatulco and I guess checked out when he left. If you tip-toe up the coast say within the 3 Nm international water line, you're still in Mexico, do you have to re-check in at customs at the next port? I think Zac's sailed well out, more than 30 Nm, so I guess it's redoing the whole thing again.
Isn't there some kind of port hopping passport or something for sailors?
Sittin' here at my desk
slowly shakin' my head
thinkin', Man oh Man Zac -
can't buy a beer in MDR
and here you are blastin'
on the edges of hurricanes...
My heart goes out to you and my estimation of your on-the-water skills and pure courage rose several more notches.
I know what it is like to get knocked around by those all engulfing black squalls. Its bad enough to deal with on the open ocean where sea room is not a issue. It takes a cool head and serious knowledge of your boat to handle when trying to negotiate a harbor entrance..and a strange one at that.
Always my best....the last two days have been a cliff hanger for sure.
Steve in CA
Zac,
The marina there is wonderful! The hotel above has wonderful guest showers, (at least they did 3 years ago)!
If you have some time definately go to Melaque and enjoy some great inexpensive food on the beach. Also the wathc the fisherman run there pongas at full throttle up onto the beach!!
Cheers and good luck!
Thor~ (Jeffry)
Well done Zac. At this point I would follow you into a strange harbor any day. Excellent decision.
Thanks go to David Morris, Brett Thompson, Mom & Dad, and your whole support team for helping you into that safe harbor.
Now---have some fun! That looks like a really good place to chill for awhile. Meets some new friends in the rain.
Rusty
@Anonmous..i was thinking the same thing but for mom to fly to see her boy..then back for the homecoming..i think they need some one on one time b4 all the hoopla.
Laura
Bravo on the decision to hole up!
It looks as though you may have experienced some of the worst weather you have seen in a while. It is a litte odd that hurricanes are starting so early in the season. At least you are aware of the hurricanes paths, and had time to reach a "hurricane hole". Hopefully the foul weather will soon pss and you will be able to make time.
Good luck, Nathan Schaefer
Not sad at all, really...
Don't even think about it. Zac's not leaving Intrepid. Not for One E, but for the 'Journey'..
New policies in Mehico these days. Sign in first port of entry and sign out at last.
Sweet as~
Thor~ (Jeffry- No E)
Hey Zac,
The Grand Bay Hotel and Marina are wonderful. The guest showers are super, at least they were 2 years ago.
Try hard to get over to Melaque and eat some good and inexpensive food on the beach! Then watch in the afternoon as the pongas go FULL throttle up on the beach for the night after a day of fishing. Awesome!
Enjoy the great pool and slide!
Cheers,
Thot (Jeffry-No E)
Obviously the decision to backtrack and find a safe harbor proved to be extremely prudent! Fortunately it doesn't look like this will be a major storm and it may not even reach tropical storm strength before making landfall.
I just wonder how sailors survived before the internet and radio communications and radar and ... :)
Could someone fill in the dots on the picture?
If Zac is holed up at approximate coordinates of 19 degrees north and 104 degrees West . . . and if he had to travel 120 miles southeast to get there . . . and if he hadn't subtracted those 120 miles, but had instead continued north or northwesterly . . . sure seems like he would have been at this moment in the direct path of the storm.
Could anyone fill in those positions and tracking points to see where the overlap would have been?
Bet it would be very interesting to see.
AND JUST FOR THE FUN OF IT . . .
Every now and then someone comments about God Talk on the site. To support the notion that a philosophical bunch gathers here, while broadening the tent, here's a favorite quote of mine from the book Yogi Philosphy, written by Yogi Ramacharaka in 1903. (No, I'm not a Yogi or anything, but enjoy reading widely across many religions and philosophies.)
Anyways, the Yogi wrote:
"As man's Spiritual Consciousness begins to unfold, he begins to have an abiding sense of the reality of the existence of the Supreme Power, and, growing along with it, he finds the sense of Human Brotherhood - of human relationship - gradually coming into consciousness."
So, words to ponder for the e-brotherhood that has gathered around Zac's adventure.
- Grant Fjermedal, Seattle
Hope you got that credit card issue all cleard up....looks like you might find some time to use it!!
Take advantage of the down time....you'll be back out there soon enough!
Sending prayers your way <><
Anita
Waterloo, NY
Captain SV "Wombat"
Zac update from Barra de Navidad
I had the pleasure of meeting Zac today as he was headed back to Intrepid with 'critical
supplies' ... a large pizza. We visited a bit while he walked to the dock for the water-taxi
back to the Grand Bay marina. I asked if he was finding everything he needed here and, as one would expect of a self-reliant sailor, his response was "yep".
I was sitting on the steps of a store front visiting with a friend when Zac walked by. Believe I said something like "Oh my, Zac Sunderland". Wish I would have had a camera to catch the 'deer-in-the-headlights' expression .. LOL !
BTW, Zac if you see this, both the folks I introduced you to had lots to say after you caught the water-taxi. "Incredible" was the most used verb, along with Mexican slang that would best translate on a family blog as "you the MAN".
Muy chido.
Te vaya bien, amigo.
Mike aka Miguel
Good decision, Zac. With Norbert & Odile hot on your trail, it's time to rest up, lose the sea legs, & become a temp landlabber for a few. Desi has me watch youtube/Balloon Shop(if computer's up) in down time. I love those guys. And where's the local ice cream shop, anyway!
A sail web I pick up, Lectronic Latitude, said Odile was about 50 knots offshore, Acapulco, behind Norbert. Sounds like a big fat headache, & possible danger. With you so close, Zac, and w/5 months to spare, you'll make it home, mission complete, but more, safe. You've become such a special part of so many people's lives. Even though almost all of us out here over the airways have never met you, we feel like we know you. We've grown to care about you, read about you, & sail with you, every day & night...most, we want you to be safe. It'll all blow over...so, keep a weather eye on the horizon...the sun'll be there before you blink.
God Bless.
Signing off from Hotlanta!
Desi and Mimi
@ Mike AKA Miguel,
Thanks for the great post. Nothing like hanging out in front of a store and watch Zac go by. I'm surprised that you even recognized him.
Miguel, thanks for taking the time and advising us of seeing Zac while he was picking up a pizza to munch on. I hope you continue to post on Zac's site.
Gracias,
Douglas Pistone
MDR, California
Aha Zac the rock star!! Get used to people calling out your name..your famous now dude!
So glad you took the detour..good time for a nice shower, quick load of laundry and some house keeping{clean that boat b4 your mom see it} haha
Enjoy the last of your trip my friend..your about change the record books!
see you soon
Laura
@Grant - I am sure that DaveH will contact you. . . . . .
Hello Zac & Zac Packers --
Love the Yogi quote, Grant... so true, so true.
Miguel - thank you for the great description of chancing to see Zac!
Zac - Glad you're getting pizza and other critical supplies, hopefully some rest as well...
Hoping the storms move out quickly. Peace, Your Oklahoma Well-Wisher
Zac-
I knew it! A large Mexican Pizza!!
Chow down, dude.
Kodiak Mike
Hi Zac,
It was a wise decision to get away from the storm's path. You have been going through some really rough sailing and have been handling it like a true sailor.
As always, we're praying for your safe return to MDR.
Godspeed,
Dick & Gin
@ Grant
quick and dirty mapping :-)
http://i40.tinypic.com/200cniq.jpg
With Zac's times and coordinates. for the precise moment of the Zac Trac Bac and the eaxct time and movement of the storm between yesterday and today, we could see when and where they meet. But it is clear "something" might have happened from the pic. he he had continued on his way. :-)
I think he did his Zac Trac Bac when the storm was 150 miles or so south of him.
Too close for comfort :-(
I think everyone wants to know what Zac has on his pizza. It's his second pizza in nearly a year. The first in Costa Rica. Personally I only have 3 x's anchovy + 2 x's cheese + 1 x's pepperoni :-)
Hopefully Zac can inform us in his next entry.
Also wondering if Mom got wind of Mike's post before speaking to Zac. It would be quite funny if she asked him how his pizza was. He wouldn't have a clue how she would know he was eating pizza hehehe.
Just tell him Moms knows EVERYTHING ! :-))
Hi Zac,
Our prayers are still always with you !!! for Safety and His Guidance !
HUG the coast ....all the way home...that way you always have a port / harbor/ dock/ shelter to ride out the winds . Slow and steady....crawl if need be. You are IN HIS HANDS !
Hey, you are famous too ! Our family saw you on the cover of the ESPN magazine at the airports of Key West and in Fort Meyers, Florida on June 17th !! Yahoo to you ! The whole article is favorable and full of great info on your trip and you ! Photo shots were great too ! Our favorite was 'Zac crashed down below...exhaustion !'
keeping you in prayer,
the Grants in NH (Key West for a week)
Hey! Where's Zac! Were hoping for an update on the storm front? Hope you've heard from Zac & he's okay. We just wanted to check in. Where's H-#2? Gone would be great. Let us know if you can....Brenda & Desi from Atlanta
Hey, Anonymous . . .
THANKS for the excellent map work.
Hope Zac gets the chance to see what you did:
http://i40.tinypic.com/200cniq.jpg
All I can say is YIKES!
That back track he did looks good and smart.
- Grant Fjermedal, Seattle
Post Script: Here's a quote from Confucius, a Chinese philosopher who lived 2,500 years ago (551-479 BCE). It speaks to how home schooler Zac is learning about the world:
"I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand."
Dear Zac,
It is good that you are keeping vigilant, especially during the last part of your trek.
I am curious as to your observations of the water quality, oil, trash, and sealife during your quest. Did you take any small water samples so that some science could be done?
Additionally, how have the night skies with stars been, both clarity and darkness, during your travels around the world?
Wishing you the best, I remain,
Astronomically,
Thor Dockweiler
Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.
[one of your sponsoring supporters]
@ Grant- Thanks for the great quote by Confucious (sp)!
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