Monday, January 19, 2009

On to Mossel Bay

The next weather window has arrived in Port Elizabeth. I am off again heading west towards Mossel Bay with a small chance at running all the way to Cape Town. Thanks to everyone who has helped me to understand the weather: David Morris, Rob Jordan, Bryan Mitchell, Clearpoint Weather and my mom back home.
Here are a few shots of the weather:


















This is the current weather with the wind turning to be more from the south and eventually the south east.







This is the forecast for 2 days from now with the wind shifting to come from the dreaded south west again. The light blue on the chart is the continental shelf. I won't be leaving the shelf like on my other legs as it is too far offshore. All the more important not to get caught out in a southwesterly!

I am traveling with 2 other boats both headed to Mossel Bay and then Cape Town.

Hoping to be in in less than 40 hours.

Cheers,

Zac

25 Comments:

Blogger Daveh said...

Watching closely from here Zac!

Daveh & Skipper
dave@davehickson.com

January 19, 2009 at 10:44 AM  
Blogger Becky said...

Good Grief! Calling all Angels...Captain Zac is setting sail...

Go Zac! Woo-Hoo!!

Nagaa

January 19, 2009 at 10:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If a man has to sail, a man has to sail !

Greetz from East London

Will et al

January 19, 2009 at 11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

passageweather.com gives 60 hours of E-wind.

you can make it to Cape Town in 1 go if they don't turn that windmachine off or in another direction....

Will

January 19, 2009 at 11:04 AM  
Blogger Willyboy said...

Safe Sailing, Zac... If you can't make Cape Town in one hop, maybe you can stop at Cape Agulhas and celebrate being at the southernmost point on your trip - at least I think that will be the southernmost... Either way, stay safe!

Cheers,

willy
milford, ohio

January 19, 2009 at 11:15 AM  
Blogger Douglas Pistone said...

Hello Zac,

I'm glad you have all those great people helping you with this weather. Hopefully you make it all the way to Cape Town. Thanks for keeping us updated. Be careful and keep your eyes open.

Like always great pictures or charts.

Sail On,
Douglas Pistone
MDR, California

January 19, 2009 at 12:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Zac
Smooth sailin' to C-town
Kodiak Mike

January 19, 2009 at 1:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Way to go Zac..
Stay on your toes and don't forget to strap yourself in..Im
Keeping my fingers crossed for good weather and perfect wind till Cape town.
Laura
Bermuda Dunes CA

January 19, 2009 at 2:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Go Zac, Go! Glad to here you're traveling in a "boat convoy." Be safe, and as Dave H said, we're "watching closely from here."

Many thanks to all the weather guru's who are working on your behalf; mom included. I take it Laurence has flown off to meet you in Cape Town! Maybe you'll beat him there!

January 19, 2009 at 2:27 PM  
Blogger Daveh said...

For those wanting more wind/weather detail for Zac's current leg, go to www.grib.us register (it's FREE) download and isntall the Ugrib application (found by Axel a while back)

Fantastic tool for the price (laughing)

Zac's window looks really good for 48-72 hours, then a NASTLY low pops up...

Daveh & Skipper
dave@davehickson.com

January 19, 2009 at 3:27 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

Hope you make it around that dreaded cape and all the way to Cape Town.

Thanks to all those great weather gurus who have helped to keep you safe.
Good to know that there are other boats travelling with you.

Rumor has it that there is an old familiar face with hugs from home wating in Capetown.

Stay safe
Sherna T

January 19, 2009 at 3:28 PM  
Blogger davejb851 said...

Zac,
A prayer for winds as you want, gentle and steady....all the way to Capetown!

God speed!

January 19, 2009 at 3:52 PM  
Blogger Anita said...

Fair winds Zac!
Hugs,
Anita
Waterloo, NY

January 19, 2009 at 3:57 PM  
Blogger Fulgum said...

Steady as she goes, Zac! Sending positive mojo your way for a smooth leg.

:)

Scott

January 19, 2009 at 4:18 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Zac, have you seen any Great White Sharts near South Africa??

January 19, 2009 at 5:39 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

Zac, I am amazed that you can make that speed with the drag caused by the wind through that hair.

Looks like Dad will beat you to Cape Town but not by much.

This weeks auction ended with Donn Coon winning the print and John Weber winning the In n' Out T shirt autographed by Zac.

My thanks to everyone who participated in the auction and to Donn and John for their generous support of Zac.

Tomorrow will be the start of a new auction with about 10 items ranging from an opening bid of $1.00 to an opening bid of $500.00 so there is something for every budget. Tune in tomorrow afternoon after the inauguration for the details.

For you history buffs out there, how come President Obama will be the 44th President but only 43 people including Obama were Presidents? Send me an email with your answer and I will enter all the correct answers into a hat for a civic minded person prize from my factory. The deadline for answers will be 6:00 PM Pacifc Time tomorrow. Obviously the deadline will end if someone posts the correct answer so please, if you know the answer, do not post it yet.

Tune into the auction tomorrow for the answer.

Bill Mann
bill@barstools4u.com

January 19, 2009 at 6:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Got to love windows!

January 19, 2009 at 11:49 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So glad we have all these weather watchers, watching for the 'windows' (love your comment Rory) closely, on Zac's behalf and as Becky says..Woo-Hoo.....Zac's on his way again. Reassuring to know that you are traveling with others Zac...that's cool.
Thanks for keeping us up to speed.
You know we all NEED to know.

Gosh, I can hardly believe this is happening, Cape Town on the horizon already. Proud of you Zac.

UK friend

January 20, 2009 at 2:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good to hear Bill M back on form!
Hugs for Bill.
Loved the comment about the elephant's ear and the length of Zac's hair. Funny!

UK friend

January 20, 2009 at 2:38 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow! You are making amazing progress around the cape. So glad that you have such great weather advisors... Holding my breath and keeping you in my prayers for continued safe passages to Cape Town! Peace, Your Oklahoma Well-Wisher

January 20, 2009 at 7:58 AM  
Blogger Daveh said...

Just checked the winds in Southern Africa… It appears that Zac has mostly a stern wind (wind at his back) probably in the 15kt range, but building to 20kts and even 30kts, but at his back still.

So, if the currents are not opposing, it should be a sleigh ride for Zac, which would be fantastico!

Figuring he’s averaging 6kts an hour, times 24 hours, he should be able to clock about 125-to130nm a day.

The leg from Port Elizabeth to Southernmost tip of Africa is about 290 miles, or about 2.25 days of sailing. The leg from the Southernmost tip to Cape Town appears to be about 110nm, or one more day…

If the weather and equipment holds, Zac could potentially be all the way around in a smidge over 3 days… maybe 4… Figuring he left yesterday, he could be in Cape Town by Weds late, or stand off until Thursday AM…

Just guestimating of course, using my Nav Software and Ugrib wind application…

Daveh & Skipper
dave@davehickson.com

January 20, 2009 at 1:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ciao Zac! Well, I'll pray that wind doesn't shift around for you. I don't suppose you were able to hear Obama's Innaguration speech, but it was really great. Definitely watch it on youtube or something when you're in port next with some decent internet connection.

Keep goin'!

-Halle S. in Oregon

skipper of the Dread Pirate Roberts


GOD BLESS AMERICA!!! ...And Zac too! ;)

January 20, 2009 at 3:18 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Dave H. for your knowledge of winds, currents, and all things sailing. Mostly thanks for doin' the math!

January 20, 2009 at 3:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi,

Zac have a good Sail around the Cape of Good Hope to the Tavern of the Seas.

All the best,
RK

@Bill Mann: Zac has wind from astern. So the extra drag from his hair speeds him up :-)

January 20, 2009 at 3:57 PM  
Blogger Daveh said...

@ Rklein

Very good observations!

Daveh

January 20, 2009 at 8:15 PM  

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